World Cup Qualifying Preview – Part 1: What does it take to qualify?

In less than a month, the last phase of 2006 World Cup qualifying matches in Asia will begin. Iran is grouped with Japan, Bahrain and North Korea and 2 of these 4 teams will advance to Germany.

In this first article of a four parts series, stats and numbers and odds and ends will be reviewed as they relate to the probabilities if Iran’s qualification.

In part two of this series, Bahrain’s team will be reviewed and in parts three and four, Japan’s national team and North Korea’s national team will be reviewed.

Games and Points Each team will play a total of 6 games: Three home games and three away games.

Maximum # of points possible - 36. If every one of the 12 matches would have a winner, there would be 36 points to distribute among the teams.

Minimum # of points possible - 24. If every game ends with a tie, 24 points would be distributed.

13 Points Means 100% Qualification - Let us remember that two teams will qualify out of this group. 13 points will ensure 100% that Iran would qualify. Without getting into the possible permutations, if Iran earns 13 points and come second in the group, then the first place team would have to have at least 13 points. That is already 26 points out of the possible 32 points (to get 13 points, there would have to be tie matches and therefore maximum points possible is no longer 36).

12 Points Means 95% Qualification - The only way a team with 12 points would not qualify is if three teams end up with 12 points and one with 0 points. It also means that in each of 12 games, a very specific team would have to win to make this scenario possible. This scenario also suggests that there were no ties in any of the matches.

So, as soon as one of the matches in the group ends with a tie, 12 points means 100% qualification.

How about 11 or 10 or 9 points? Would that be enough to qualify? Actually yes. That is if one team, lets say Japan, wins all of her matches, they would earn 18 points out of 36 points. At that point, 10 points would 100% qualify the second team for Germany and even 9 points could qualify a team based on certain sequesnce of events.

Iran’s Potential Outcome Iran’s oppositions will be reviewed one at a time in parts 2 through 4. For now, here are my predictions for the 6 games Iran will play

Game 1, 2/9/2005: Iran vs. Bahrain in Bahrain - Given the emotional nature of this match and the 2001 history of the two teams and the fact that Branko Ivankovich (Iran’s head coach) has all of his players available to him (as of this writing, Zandi’s case is not fully resolved but he will likely play for Iran), I believe that Iran will come up victorious out of this match. Chuck up a 3 tough points for Iran.

Game 2, 3/25/2005: Iran vs. Japan in Iran - I project a tie in this match. Both teams know that if they tie each other and do well in other games they would qualify. This will result in a more conservative match. 1 point is what Iran would likely get out of this match.

Game 3, 3/30/2005: Iran vs. North Korea in North Korea - North Korea is better than when Iran saw them last year for the Asian Cup qualifying matches. They eliminated U.A.E. and in the process earned 7 points at home including the destruction of Thailand (4 – 1) and a 0 – 0 tie with U.A.E. My brain says a tie will be in the works but my heart says a victory and 3 more points for Iran.

Game 4, 6/3/2005: Iran North Korea in Iran - This game should be an easier victory. By now, North Korea should have lost most hopes to advance and an easier team to play against. Expect 3 points for Iran.

Game 5, 8/6/2005: Iran vs. Bahrain in Iran - Here is the one that many may disagree with me. I expect a tie in this match. To advance to the next round, at this point, Iran would only need a tie. Branko would know that and he would be more conservative.

Having said that, expect Azadi stadium to be covered wall to wall with Iran’s flag and more than 100,000 fans cheer for Iran and irritate Bahrain. I expect a tie and a point here but the emotions could turn it into a 3 pointer.

Game 6, 8/17/2005: Iran vs. Japan in Japan - By now, both Iran and Japan would hopefully have qualified and therefore this match may only matter because it would affect the seeding of the two teams for the World Cup. Expect another tie and 1 more point for Iran.

Based on the above projections, I expect to see Iran finish with 12 to 14 points and qualify.

We all hope for Iran’s qualification. I am sure we all want to see Iran go out there and win every game with a wide margin while displaying fantastic football.

We should remember that a 6 match group stage is a marathon and not a sprint.

Qualifying is all that matters at this stage.

Let the Games Begin!

To be continued. In part 2, Bahrain will be reviewed.