World Cup Qualifying Preview – Part 2: Studying Bahrain!

Iran will play Bahrain on February 9th in Manama. For many Iranians, this is probably Iran’s most important match of the qualification round. The significance of the match is both due to its impact on the qualification process as well as the emotional weight it carries. Over three years ago, Iran played Bahrain in the same competition in Manama and lost 3 - 1. Iranians still are upset on how they were treated that day. That is a different topic for a different day.

As it will be discussed below, Bahrain is a fast team with sharp forwards. Bahrain likes to take the ball to the middle of the penalty box with quick deep passes or low crosses, create space for her forwards and score on low shots. Bahrain has a disciplined offense and of the games covered in this article, they scored 38 goals in 17 matches.

Defensively, Bahrain is a team with many deficiencies. Defenders are not skilled and Iranian players should be able to succeed on 1-on-1 encounters. Additionally, Iran’s offense should do well in the air.

To play Bahrain, like any other opponent, we need to learn the strengths and weaknesses of the team. It is helpful and critical then to learn more about the team, players and how they play.

Bahrain is coached by a Croatian, Srecko Juricic. Mr. Juricic has had a semi-successful campaign with the team since his tenure began. The team is young. Of the starting eleven, only three players are older than 23 and none is older than 30. This partially explains why Bahrain has such a speedy team and why they play a more effective offensive game in the second half as discussed later in this article.

Games Played in 2004 For this article, only those Bahrain matches that were played in official tournaments were reviewed. In 2004, Bahrain played in three major competitions. In the Asian Cup, Bahrain placed fourth after losing 4 – 2 to Iran. In the Persian Gulf tournament, Bahrain placed 3rd . Bahrain also advanced from her group in the World Cup qualifying matches to come and face Iran. Bahrain’s record over these three tournaments is not as impressive as the placements they made. They won 7, lost 3 and tied 7 other matches.

The lone competition where Bahrain did well was during the world cup qualifying matches where Bahrain was grouped with Syria, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Table A below shows how Bahrain faired in these three tournaments.

n an amazing stat from the above, Bahrain allowed more goals than scored despite finishing 4th in the Asian Cup. This is partly due to allowing 4 goals a match against Japan and Iran in the semifinals and third place matches.

In general, Bahrain’s defense and goalkeeping are not in par with her great offensive weapons and when playing better Asian teams, Bahrain is in a race on who scores more goals. Last year, Bahrain allowed: - 4 goals in games against Japan and Iran (lost both matches), - 3 goals against Oman (lost the match) and - 2 goals each against China, Uzbekistan and Syria (3 ties).

Bahrain could be scored on.

The Offensive Stars Bahrain scored 38 goals in 17 games and that is an average of 2.24 goals per match. In the Asian Cup and the Persian Cup tournaments, where Bahrain had to play more competitive teams, this team scored 23 goals in 11 matches. That is still about 2 goals per match.

Offensive star of the team is Aala Hubail. As Table B bellows show, this player has managed to score over 25% of all her country’s goals in the three major competitions. Hubail also scored 5 goals in the 2004 Asian Cup and shared the top scorer glory with Ali Karimi.

Mohammad Hubail is the other dangerous player. His speed along with Talal Yusuf’ long range shots could create difficulties for the Iranian defense. Yusuf scored on a free kick against Iran in the Asian Cup.

One interesting stat is that last year, 16 different players scored the 38 goals for Bahrain.

Patterns in When They Score or Scored On! Looking at Table C below provides some interesting insights to how Bahrain divides her energy for the matches. Again, let’s keep in mind that the stats presented here are based on 38 matches and therefore they carry a certain statistical significance.

 

Bahrain scored 66% of her goals in the second halves of her games. This is significant because it indicates that Bahrain’s team is in a good physical condition and as the game progresses, they wear down the opposition and take more chances. This strength though should not matter as much in the game against Iran as the Iranian team is also in a very good physical condition.

The facts that Bahrain only scored 13 of her 38 goals, 34%, in the first halves and only 15% of her goals in the first third of the matches indicate that Bahrain starts the matches conservatively and attacks and counter attacks a lot more as the game progress well into the second halves.

A surprised finding is the last 10 minutes of Bahrain matches. Bahrain scored 21% of her goals (8) and allowed 33% of her goals (also 8) in the last 10 minutes of the matches.

Bahrain likes to and is capable to score at the closing of the halves. They scored 6 goals between 40th and 45th minutes and 6 between 85th and 90th minutes of the matches.

On the defensive side, Bahrain was scored on 18 times. 75% of the goals were scored against Bahrain in the second halves of her matches and in fact 5 goals were allowed in the last 5 minutes of the matches. Bahrain scored 4 goals from minute 90 on and allowed 3 goals in the extra times. Defensively, this is significant as it indicates a couple of things:

1. The defense gets tired as the games go on. 2. As Bahrain attacks more, the defensive players are not covering counter attacks well and perhaps become more careless.

How Does Bahrain Score? Films of 23 Bahrain goals and 2 complete matches were reviewed for this article. These are the goals scored in the Asian and Persian Gulf Cups. Here are the breakdowns on how Bahrain scored these 23 goals: · 10 goals were scored when the plays ran from the middle of the field, 8 were engineered from the left wing and 5 from the right wing. · 61% of the goals, 14 of them, were scored as the results of shots made inside the box. Bahrain is very good in getting the ball to her forwards inside the penalty box and for them to create space and finish the job. In most cases, they had more than 2 forwards in the box when the final shot was made. · Only 1 out of 23 goals was scored from a corner kick. · Only 1 out of 23 goals was resulted from a long range shot (not including free kicks). That was a shot from 22 meter away. Bahrain players prefer to make an inside deep pass instead of taking a shot from behind the box. · 5 out of 23 goals were scored from the set plays. Three goals were scored from the free kicks behind the box, one from a corner kick and another from a set play that was crossed over. Bahrain seems very dangerous on free kicks and they scored one goal in such manner against Iran in the 2004 Asian Cup. · Only 3 of the 23 goals were scored by headers. They will not have an aerial superiority against Iranian defense.

Figure A below shows the summary of the breakdown of goals scored.

 

 

Bahrain’s offense moves the ball well, is fast and likes to pass low on the ground balls. They are not superior in the air in either offense or defense.

How They Are Scored On? Films of 14 goals that Bahrain allowed were reviewed for this article. These are the goals scored against Bahrain during the Asian Cup.

Bahrain’s defense has issues. Allowing 14 goals in the Asian Cup is a good evidence of that. In films reviewed, opposition forwards dribbled Bahrain’s defensive players easily inside and around the penalty box and skilled players like Karimi and Kia should have field days against them.

Here are the breakdowns on how those 14 goals were scored against Bahrain: · 2 out of the 14 goals were scored from the penalty spots. · Only 1 of 14 goals was scored on a clear counter attack. · Of the 12 non-penalty goals allowed, 4 were through the middle, 5 from the left wing and 3 from the right wing. · 2 goals were allowed on corner kicks and 2 goals were allowed on headers. · The goalkeeper was clearly at fault in at least 6 of the goals.

Looking at the films that I had access to, one could make the conclusion that as effective the Bahrain’s offense is, her defense and goalkeeping are weak and ineffective. This is a team whose defense allowed 8 goals in the last 10 minutes of the games and 6 of those goals were scored in the last 5 minutes of matches.

The Wrap! When on February 9th, Iran plays Bahrain, unless the psychological factors play significantly, Iran should win the match. Bahrain’s defense is average to weak among the top teams of Asia and they don’t have great individual skills in controlling the ball. Kia and Karimi and even Borhani should be able to dribble and create opportunities for others. Daei and Hashemian should be able to use their physical strengths and in-the-air abilities to rule the air.

Others like Zandi, Moabeli and Nekunam should not be afraid to take long range shots against this defense and the defense would not stop such shots. Low shots aimed for the poles would result in goals against this goalkeeper.

Defensively, Iran needs to watch out for low passes from all sides inside the penalty box at the center of the 6-meter line. Bahrain will crowd the box with multiple forwards. This is where Bahrain likes to get the ball to and allow her forwards to use and create space for low shots. Bahrain will likely not try high crosses as much against Iran as that is not their style of play and they don’t have height advantage.

I look for a fast paste and exciting match. I expect Iran to score 3 goals and win the match 3 – 1.

Acknowledgement: Thanks to www.persianway.com and Shahed Doroudi who provided access to Bahrain film clips.