Iran – Vs Japan: Analyzing THE MIGHTY Japan

Japan is a tough team at home and is a tough team on the road. Along with Iran, South Korea and Saudi Arabia, Japan is one of the four power houses in Asia. The difference is that over the last 8 years, Japan could claim to have been the strongest of the four.

Winning two Asian Cups in 2000 and 2004, participating in 2000 and 2004 Olympics and hosting 2002 World Cup provides enough reasons for Japan to claim the best team in Asia.

That is not the whole story. If history was all that was needed to qualify for the World Cup, then why would you play the qualifications?

Japan managed to defeat North Korea with a last minute heroics of substitute, Masashi Ogura (right).

Japan’s biggest strength is her ability to play as one cohesive team and not a group of stars who are individually brilliant but together they wouldn’t function. This cohesiveness comes from the selfless style of the players and their teamwork when the success of one is the success of all.

Current Roster

Japan’s head coach, Zico, has found himself in an unfamiliar territory. Several of his key players are injured or suspended for the match against Iran. Among them:

Starting goal keeper Kawaguchi is hurt with a broken finger. Kawaguchi has been the main starting goalkeeper over the last two years and was the one who started every game in the 2004 Asian Cup.

Alex Santos, the Brazilian born defender, is out due to the accumulation of yellow cards. The same is true for the other starting defender, Tanaka.

Goal Keeper

The probable goalkeeper is Seigo Narazaki (right). It is important to note that Narazaki is not a new comer to the national team. He was the starting goalkeeper in the Sydney Olympics and also started in all the games during the 2002 World Cup. With the height of 1.87 CM (6’ 3”), Narazaki is a tower to be reckoned with and should do well against high crosses and corners on the goal. In fact, the book on Narazaki is that he does well in coming out of the goal on high crosses and controls the game. The wrap on him is that he is not as consistent in long shots.

Defenders

In defense, the star is Yuji Nakazawa (left). He was the Japan Player of the year in 2004 and has a tendency to attack from the left side. In fact, since the 2002 world cup, he has scored 5 goals for the national team.

Midfielders

For the match against Iran, we see the return of midfielder Nakata (right). Nakata plays his club matches in Italy (Fiorentina) and has been suffering from back injuries. When healthy, Nakata is the most dangerous player Japan has.

Along with Nakata, we should be wary of Nakamura, the Reginna midfielder and the one who has scored the most (9 times) since 2002 World Cup.

Zico has selected 10 midfielders for the Iran match and they are all capable of creating problems for Iran’s defense.

Forwards

For this match, 4 forwards have been selected. The probable starters are Suzuki and Takahara (below). Takahara plays his club games for Hamburg and is a teammate of Mehdi Mahdavikia.

 

Suzuki Takahara

The wild card forward may be Masashi Ogura. He was the best goal scorer of J-League in 2004 and scored 20 goals in 30 matches for his club Gamba Osaka. He also scored an additional 10 goals during the Japan Cup (equivalent to Iran’s Hazfi Cup). After scoring 30 goals in 39 games in the club level, Ogura still finds himself behind more experienced and better known forwards. In a way, his experience may be like the one of Reza Enayati in Iran as Enayati also finds himself as the best goal scorer in the Iranian league but is probably ranked 4th in the depth chart among Iranian forwards.

They Don’t Lose to Asians!

Here are some amazing stats for you:

- Last time Japan lost a tournament match against an Asian team was March of 1998 when they lost to China in the Dynasty Cup. That is 7 years and 2 Asian Cups ago.

- Last time Japan lost a friendly match against an Asian team was May of 2003 against South Korea. In fact, since March of 1998, the only Asian team that has managed to defeat Japan is South Korea and they have done it in 3 friendly matches.

They Win, They Lose, They Tie!

Since 2002, Japan has only lost in 10 matches. Japan’s losses have been to quality countries. They include:

Argentina – 3 times, France, Germany, Hungry, Senegal and South Korea.

You may wonder how in the world would Argentina play Japan every year and that is a very good question indeed. Is it all financially motivated?

During the same timeframe, Japan has defeated some power-football countries including: Nigeria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Serbia and Montenegro, South Korea and Tunisia.

Add to the above, their ties against England, Iran, Cameroon, Romania, Paraguay and South Korea and you can see how impressive the opponents list of Japan has been over the last 3 years.

One major factor in building a team for the World Cup is to allow them to play against the best of the world. 22 of Japan’s matches since the last World Cup have been gainst high quality teams. For comparison purposes, during the same timeframe, most notable Iran’s opponents were Japan and South Korea in the Asian Cup, Germany, Ukraine, Bosnia and an Italian club.

Enough said on this topic!

Patterns in When They Score or Scored On! Looking at the table below provides some interesting insights into how Japan divides her energy for the matches. Again, let’s keep in mind that the stats presented here are based on 48 matches and therefore they carry a certain statistical significance.

 

 

Japan starts the games conservatively. They try to get to know the opponent and don’t begin matches trying an all attack. In 48 matches, they have only scored 3 times in the first 10 minutes.

38% of Japan’s goals were scored in the firs half and 62% in the second half. The same imbalance does not exist for the goals scored against Japan. We see that half the goals are scored against Japan in the first 45 minutes of matches and the other half in the second half.

Japan starts the second half with energy and plan. Between minutes 46 – 55, Japan has scored 11 goals in 48 matches. They have been aggressive but another point to make here is that after the half-times, when Zico analyzed the opposition for the players, Japan showed fresher, more aggressive and scored more effectively.

Between minutes 55-80 is when the action has been. Japan has scored 33% and has given up her goals in this period.

Scoring First Means, Japan Wins!

In the 48 matches studied, it is easy to see that when Japan scores first, they win. In 25 games when Japan scored first, they won 23 times and tied twice.

Japan doesn’t lose when they score first. In 20 games when the opponent scored first, Japan lost 10 times, tied 7 matches and won only 3 times.

Of the 10 losses, 8 were on the road. As the above numbers prove, scoring first against Japan is the key.

Last Words

While Iran’s team was not reviewed in this article, here are some suggestions based on the research for this paper.

On Offense:

- Iran should try long shots against the new goalkeeper. This is one area of weakness for this team.

- Iran should use crosses as a weapon in this match. All but one defender is under 180 CM (6’) tall. I would try crosses between the 6-meter line and the 18 meter line and not inside the 6-meter box. This is due to the height of the Japanese goalkeeper.

- Nakazawa is a great defender but he also joins the attack. Iran should take advantage of the space created when Nakazawa is going forward.

- Japan’s left side is more vulnerable than the right side. Miura plays in that side and is not an active player.

- Remember that Japan will be happy with a tie but will initially try to go forward especially in the first half.

On Defense:

- We need to stop Japan’s powerful shots. Japan has at least 5 players who are capable of scoring from 25 meters out. Our midfielders and defenders, with a man-to-man coverage have to ensure Japanese players are not open to attempt long shots.

- Japan is very effective on set plays especially shots behind the penalty box. If we have to commit a foul to stop Japanese attackers from penetrating our defense, the fouls should be committed earlier in the run and further away from the penalty box. Japan has a high percentage scoring record for these types of shots.

- Japan will crowd the midfield with 5 defenders as they probably try a 4-5-1 formation. The true battle will be in the midfield.

My Lineup:

The starting lineup is similar to Branko’s.

We know that Mirzapoor will be the goalkeeper. In defense, Rezai and Golmohammadi would also be my central defender choices.

I would also use Zandi further back on the left side to be more of a help to the defense as I would use Nikbakht (if healthy) as my left wing.

Additionally, like Branko, I would use Nekunam,Karimi and Mahdavikia in the midfield. Kaabi will be there to act as an attacking defender.

I would also use both Daei and Hashemian as forwards. This formation therefore would be more like a 3-5-2 but it has 2 left footers, Zandi and Nikbakht on the left side. Zandi and Nikbahkt therefore would get a chance to play along side each other rather than in place of each other.

I would also have no hesitation to take Daei, Karimi or Mahdavi Kia out if they were as ineffective as the Bahrain game. In fact, at minute 55, if the score is tie or we are losing, I would start my substitutions.

Kazemian would be a great choice to fill in for Kaabi or Kia while Enayati is the choice to replace Daei. Lastly, I would consider Moabeli and Navidkia to act as subs if appropriate.

My heart wants a 2 – 1 victory for Iran but my gut expects a 1 – 1 tie.

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